Right now there are three dominant smartphone platforms, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL)'s iPhone, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM)'s BlackBerry, and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)'s Android. Not necessarily in that order.
Do we really need any more?
Like almost everyone who carries a smartphone, I've been doing my best been to not think about Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT)'s Windows Mobile. Meanwhile, Palm Inc. is getting hammered (see my blog from yesterday: Palm, Please Don't Die). Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) is a big deal in smartphones around the world, just not here in North America.
That leaves the big three to battle it out, right?
Not so fast, Palm isn't dead yet, and the recent announcement of Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, and Meego from Nokia and Intel, promise (threaten?) to revive those players. Irrespective of their individual merits, I'm not sure that's a good thing.
It's not that I don't think smartphone competition is healthy. In fact, competition is essential to keep the innovation flowing. It's just that I wonder what the optimum number of competitors is to not fracture the market into so many pieces that enterprises -- much less individuals -- can't keep up with the choices.
A handful of serious choices, with significant differences in capabilities, strengths, and weaknesses? Great!
The cellular equivalent of the cereal aisle in your local supermarket, with hundreds of me-too choices differentiated mostly by spurious marketing claims? Not so much.
Given that each platform spurs multiple devices, some very different, others pretty much indistinguishable from each other, I think we're fast approaching the useful limit of choices. I welcome Microsoft as a serious smartphone competitor -- if that turns out to be the case -- and as noted, I've been a Palm fan for longer than I care to dwell on.
But I think we're right about at the limit now. Unless a new competitor arrives with some big-time innovations to set it apart from the current roster, I'm not sure there's all that much benefit in yet another competing platform. After all, there are lots of handset and software choices within each platform. And over time, I expect a couple of the current players to drop out, leaving one or two leaders and a couple of niche-y hangers on.
Any thoughts on who will be the winners and losers here? And what would be the optimum number of serious smartphone platforms for the enterprise to choose among?
3 makes sense as a long-term number, but I think we're still way too early to be that narrow. You're leaving out Nokia and Android, for example. In fact, there is so much money at stake that I predict we're likely to see some new entrants in the next few years.
That's the magic number. Over time, there will be vendors who will have tried (and failed) in the mobile device/mobile OS space. Some (Brands) companies, having cut their teeth in the computer hardware business, will tiptoe their way into a market that they don't understand; they will lose their button-down shirts.
In the end, the number of smartphone platforms will be determined by the number of companies that are able to sort of carve out some kind of zen balance between making inexpensive hardware, creating operating environments (way harder than most people realize), and last, but not least, the ability to make money on the device or platform, long after the device has left the store.
How many outfits can currently do that? Apple, for one. I expect that Microsoft will be a major player within one year, with Win Phone 7. I don't know whether RIM has the chops--long term-- to stay in the race. If they do, then that makes three.
Sidenote: one thing that RIM does have is a collection of different form factors, sizes, and shapes. They've made good choices about offering phones to different demographics in different form factors. That helps their platform.
Yes, there will be others who make noises and wave their arms about this new initiative, and that new (or improved) platform. But they will have come to the party much too late. All the guests are already drinking punch, and it's going to be a really, really tough sell to get them to swith to another flavor.
So, consolidation is the new dance craze that's sweeping the nation. There will be a narrowing-down of options and alternatives, over time, with three key vendors being left standing at the end.
re: How Many Smartphone Platforms Do We Really Need?
Fredric,
I agree with the smart phone train, and would love to purchase one myself “if I truly had need”. Smart phones are finding other useful markets for possible futures. Social necessity can be accomplished with a normal cell phone at no extra cost. Let’s agree to disagree on this subject.The smart phone competition will only benefit everyone in the long run.A few articles on the subject that you may find interesting are below.I am very pleased with the new markets that smart phones are entering.
re: How Many Smartphone Platforms Do We Really Need?
Lainey,
I gotta disagree with you on the fashion statement idea.
Unless you are always at your computer, the ability to read and send email -- and other text-based communications -- from a smartphone has become a business necessity for many, many people. And for young people, it's also a social necessity.
As a freelancer, you may be able to avoid the need for full time connectivity, but IT departments simply can't. And frankly, the benefits of being able to solve problems remotely is worth the inconvenience of being at the business's beck and call 24/7.
Bottom line: Whether or not you got the memo, the war is over. The smartphone train has left the station. (I love mixing metaphors.) The unstoppable trend is to migrate as much communications and computing as possible to smaller and smaller devices that are always connected.
Smart CIOs, -- OK, just about any CIO -- know this and are scrambling to get out in front of this trend.
Now, WHICH smartphone you carry, that's often treated as a fashion statement, sometimes even by enterprises who want their employees to present a certain image.
re: How Many Smartphone Platforms Do We Really Need?
I hope to someday agree with you Fredric.
I know many people carry smart phones but very few actually need them for business. Smart phones seem more of a fashion statement. Understandably if media is your career or if you have to travel for business purposes then a smart phone is actually paying for itself.
My freelance work can be anything from; making business calls, administrative, or research. But, I would never type a legal document, or make additions to an excel report with any smart phone. Most of the companies I freelance for, will not accept wireless activities. All work submitted must be on a computer that is hard lined. Maybe because of my very limited view, a smart phone seems more of a luxury than a true need. I do agree that smart phones have a legitimate place in the world of business but when you find more games, and music applications than actual business application for the iPhone my luxury position is valid.
Interesting chart Jake, but it's not really tracking the smartphone market per se.
It's actually tracking smartphone Web use. So even tho there are lots more BlackBerries out there, the iPhone users are MUCH bigger consumers of the Web.
That's not totally surprising, as only the most recent BlackBerries offer a decent Web surfing experience.
As more Android phones make it into the field, I'd expect their Web usage to climb, since they tend to encourage that kind of use.
BTW, congratulations on being first to post a chart here on Enteprise Efficiency!
re: How Many Smartphone Platforms Do We Really Need?
Lainey,
For a freelancer, that makes sense -- tho I couldn't live without the Internet in the palm of my hand 24 hours a day.
But things are very different in the enterprise. More and more enteprise workers are spending less and less time in their actual offices, and communication is becoming increasing digital, not just voice based. (I get 100X more emails than phone calls these days.)
And that's only the beginning. As enterprises increasingly rely on mobile applications for things far beyond just communicating, smartphones have become critical foundations for getting work done.
Oh, and there's one more BIG difference. In the enterprise, the company foots the bill...
Great chart with your post. I was just speaking with someone today about the steady rise of Android in the smartphone market. Also, I read a report stating that AT&T has significantly improved their coverage throughout the states. They were at the top of nearly all customer rating categories. I think Apple will be at the top of the charts for some time until the mainstream pop culture changes and folks want the new fad.
What's also interesting is the lawsuit filed by Apple today against HTC. We took this as Apple's attempt to stick it to both Google AND Microsoft. (Article below)
I just ran into this chart from Quantcast showing the trends in the smartphone platform market. They've got the iPhone as dominant and still growing in absolute numbers but declining slightly in market share, with Android showing dramatic rise and RIM for some reason showing a recent modest rise. Then there's "other."
re: How Many Smartphone Platforms Do We Really Need?
At this time, I cannot come up with a valid reason to purchase a smart phone for myself. Being very practical most of the time, I would need a great deal more freelance work before I could condone the investment. Right now as I see it, my LG-ENV3 is sufficient, though in the past, I have owned a few “so called” smart phones. The extra 50 dollars a month to surf the web, and have e-mail perplexes me. For no extra cost, I can set my LG-ENV3 to alert me regarding; receiving e-mail and able to read all “non graphic” text and reply as well. Also receive alerts for most social networking sites, which I can read and send replies “including photos”, And can send texts to others who are on their computers via instant messenger and vice-versa. So for “need” my LG-ENV3 is enough for now. I don’t truly need the other cool applications offered.
I have 3 smart phones lying in a box that are either; out dated or never held up to the hype. I love the new Android and iPhone but until I can justify the need, will only window shop. I believe that though smart phones have come a long way, they still are not worth the “smart plan” you are chained to.
You may smirk at my view but “if the truth be known” I invested the money saved, into purchasing “real smart” things like: A Harley Davidson FB and all the video gaming a child can ask for. “I am making fun of my wastefulness.” Silly as it may sound, until I have a real good reason to purchase a smart phone, I will just keep using my LG-ENV3.Keeping a smart phone busy with freelance offers would be the only legit reason I can think of to make that expensive puppy earn its keep.
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